A statistical modeling study out of the University of Colorado is predicting Mitt Romney the winner of the upcoming 2012 Presidential elections. These kinds of predictions don’t typically hold water, or news worth except for the fact that the Colorado prediction has been correct for the past 8 elections. The study essentially goes state by state to predict who will win the electoral votes from each battleground state. If this study holds up true, it is bad news for the President.
According to the Mercury News:
An analysis from the University of Colorado that has correctly predicted the outcome of presidential elections since 1980 is forecasting Mitt Romney as the winner this year.
Political science professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry found that the ailing economy spells trouble for the president’s re-election bid. The professors conduct a state-by-state analysis, incorporating economic data such as unemployment figures.
The results of their analysis show that Obama will win 218 votes in the electoral college, short of the 270 that he would need to be re-elected.
While their study focuses on the electoral college, the political scientists predict Romney, the presumptive Republican candidate, will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote compared with 47.1 for Obama when considering only the two major political parties.
The economy is a main driver in elections, said Bickers. “If the economy were just average, we would be forecasting Obama to win,” Bickers said. “But the economy is below average, and he is struggling.”
Bickers said this election cycle has some parallels with 1980 — a period when the economy was slumping and inflation was skyrocketing — and voters chose Republican Ronald Reagan over Democratic incumbent President Jimmy Carter.